CDHealthWire Consumer Driven Market Report© newsletter (used with permission)
August 6, 2008
Americans will never save money towards retirement in an HSA until they reach age 55, according to a new report by the Employee Benefits Research Institute (EBRI) sent to news media today. Also, there is never interest paid on HSA checking accounts, no investment return on HSA investments, no statutory increase in the maximum contribution to HSAs year-to-year, and no increase in the over-55 catch-up contribution under the HSA statute.
Sound wrong? Well it must be time for another EBRI report on HSAs. This time the supposedly “independent” research institute purports to use actual numbers, but instead gets caught red-handed again playing games.
EBRI: “This research shows that while HSAs can be used to save for health care expenses in retirement, the maximum savings that can be accumulated in an HSA will be far from sufficient to fully cover the savings needed in retirement for insurance premiums and out-of-pocket expenses.” That is of course unless you start saving before age 55 – like HSA owners actually do.
Here is a list of the main screw-ups we found:
Note: EBRI prepares a lengthy analysis showing why HSAs will never be a good way of saving for retiree health. The goal is described as a bare minimum of $132,00 for males and $181,000 for females. Only problem: the supposed shortfall is caused by an assumption that nobody saves money in an HSA until age 55 and all other ages are irrelevant. That’s a funny assumption since the average age of new HSA account holders is 42 and has been falling for five years. No retirement plan works at age 55 including IRAs or 401ks.
We were forced to do our own spreadsheet to see how big a mess-up this is. We immediately started coming across more and more errors. If you do a totally accurate assumption on 55-year-olds, for example, HSAs hit $152,947 by age 65 – 98% of EBRI’s own minimum goal for an average of men and women with median drug expenses.
The most shocking cover-up by EBRI: if you run accurate numbers on 45-year-olds, which is obviously the correct age to use, HSA asset accumulation reaches $340,884 at age 65 – more than double the EBRI stated minimum goal. In fact, that’s way over the $312,500 maximum needed under the EBRI estimate for a couple.
note: EBRI fails to use publicly-available updates to the statutory and regulatory formulas for HSA contributions. The big one is an average 2.93% cost-of-living increase in HSA maximum contributions over the past five years – EBRI uses zero. There is also a little thing called the catch-up contribution for 55-year-olds that rises by $100 per year and just hit $1,000 for 2009. The EBRI report falsely states the age is 65, then uses the 2008 number for 55-year-olds without any increase, shaving thousands off the accumulation of HSA retirement funds.
note: Money earns interest. Most retirement financial planners ask about this first. Not EBRI. It ignores an average 3% interest paid on HSA accounts over the past five years, and an average 6% on invested funds in HSAs (they are less than 5% of total assets). We used a conservative 3.3% overall asset yield over time and it makes a huge difference in how much Americans can save in an HSA.
|
55 year old |
age |
Contribution |
Catch-up |
HSA Assets |
% of Goal |
| 55 |
5,900 |
900 |
6,800 |
4% |
|
| 56 |
7,073 |
1000 |
12,973 |
8%
|
|
|
COLA >: 2.93% |
57 |
8,380 |
1100 |
21,353 |
14% |
|
Asset Yield: 3.3% |
58 |
9,826 |
1200 |
31,180 |
20% |
|
Catch-up: $100 |
59 |
11,414 |
1300 |
42,594 |
27% |
|
Minimum Goal: |
60 |
13,149 |
1400 |
55,743 |
36% |
|
$156,500 |
61 |
15,035 |
1500 |
70,778 |
45% |
| 62 |
17,075 |
1600 |
87,853 |
56% |
|
| 63 |
19,276 |
1700 |
107,129 |
68% |
|
| 64 |
21,641 |
1800 |
128,771 |
82% |
|
| 65 |
24,176 |
1900 |
152,947 |
98% |
|
Questions? Send emails to the Publisher at healthmarkets@starpower.net
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August 31, 2008
